Ambassador Steve Williams presents Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Krassimir Kostov a map showing the impact of  a global 4C temperature rise

On 22 October, Ambassador Steve Williams met Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Krassimir Kostov and presented a map showing the impact of a global 4C temperature rise.

Earlier today, the map was officially launched by the UK’s Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, and the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband, along with Professor John Beddington, the UK Government’s Chief Scientist at the Science Museum in London.  The map was produced by the UK Meteorological Office, drawing together contributions from 27 leading scientists. It represents the latest authoritative scientific assessment of the impact of global warming.

The purpose of the map is to show the severe multiple impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by  4°C – on water availability, agricultural productivity, more extreme temperatures and drought, increased risk of forest fires, and a rise in sea level.

Ambassador Steve Williams said: “The map shows that a 4°C rise in temperature would have a dramatic effect on our world. It underlines the vital importance of securing a global agreement at the Copenhagen summit in December to measures which ensure that the global rise in temperature is no greater than 2°C.”

Notes for Editors

1. The poster shows: that a 4 degree average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases.
   The average land temperature will be 5.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
   The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur, and highlight the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise.
   Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of the vital dry season glacial melt water source.
   The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband said, “We cannot cope with a 4 degree world. This map clearly illustrates the scale of the challenge facing us today - climate change is a truly global problem that needs a global solution and it is a solution we have within our grasp. But to tackle the problem of climate change, all of us - foreign ministries, environment ministries, treasuries, departments of defence and all parts of government and societies - must work together to keep global temperatures to 2 degrees. It is only by doing this that we can minimise the huge security risks presented by a future 4 degree world.”
   Ed Miliband, Energy and Climate Change Secretary said, “This map shows that the stakes couldn’t be any higher at the Copenhagen talks in December. Britain’s scientists have helped to illustrate the catastrophic effects that will result if the world fails to limit the global temperature rise to 2 degrees. With less than 50 days left before agreement must be reached, the UK’s going all out to persuade the world of the need to raise its ambitions so we get a deal that protects us from a 4 degree world.”
   Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office says: “If emissions continue at the current rate the global average temperature are likely to rise by 4 °C by the end of this century or even substantially earlier. The science tells us that this will have severe and widespread impacts in all parts of the world, so we need to take action now to reduce emissions to avoid water and food shortages in the future.”
   Prof. Chris Rapley CBE, Director of the Science Museum and Professor of Climate Science at University College London said:
   “The map provides graphic evidence of the dramatic transformation of our world that a 4 degree global temperature rise would trigger. It leaves no doubt of the paramount importance of a successful outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations.”
   
2. Further information on the science of the map can be found at www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/effects/
3. More information on climate change can be found on http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk
4. Background to the +4 ºC temperature rise impact poster.
   The impacts featured in this poster are not an exhaustive list.  A selection of impacts was chosen to cover the major headline themes, (water, food, etc.), but not every impact across the globe is covered.
   The poster focuses on human impacts.  Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity have been deliberately excluded.  The only exception is the information about Amazon die-back, which is there because it also represents a significant economic loss to the region.
5. For more information please contact Mira Radeva in the British Embassy, Mira.Radeva@fco.gov.uk, (02) 933 92 69

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